In September, under the stimulus of the great heating up and the favorable fundamental resonance of the macroee emotions, the three major domestic fats rose sharply, and after the National Day holiday, it also opened up and maintained a high shock trend.However, the prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and vegetable oil have reached the highest level in the year. Can they continue to maintain their strength in the future?
How much driving for important reports still has the driving force for oil fat
1. Palm oil: The supply and demand at home and abroad is tightly offset the impact of reports, and the price continues to be strong.
Although the Malaysian Palm Oil Department (MPOB) raised the Malaysian palm oil period at the end of the September report to the 200,000 tons of the Malaysian palm oil period higher than the market estimation.This is mainly because the origin and domestic supply and demand have supported support.In the place of origin, the 200,000 tons of 200,000 tons are only in the middle level, and the absolute number is not high, and high -frequency data shows that the output of palm oil in Malaysia from October 1-15 decreased by 7.93%month -on -month.The range of the month is further reduced.In Indonesia, it was dragged down by the decline in the output of May to July. In July, palm oil inventory was at the lowest level of the nearly five years of 2.513 million tons, and the range of accumulated storage was not large in the future.Therefore, it is expected that the stock inventory is only at a low level in history in the last month (October) in the last month (October) of the traditional production season, and the supply pressure is not great.From November, palm oil production has entered the traditional production reduction season. Since the palm oil inventory of Malaysia and Indonesia in October is not strong, the decline in output will be more obvious on the benefits of prices.
In the domestic aspect, the current profit of palm oil in recent months is still poor. The volume of palm oil to Hong Kong from October to December is expected to be 70,000, 200,000, and 180,000 tons, respectively, a year -on -year decrease.Although the cost -effectiveness of palm oil has suppressed downstream consumption, the domestic palm oil storage is very slow when the supply increment is limited.With the support of supply and demand at home and abroad, short -term palm oil prices are expected to be maintained.
In the middle and long term, the growth of global palm oil in 2024/2025 greater than the supply growth, the market was decreased by 0.91 percentage points to 12.74%year -on -year.In terms of rhythm, until March 2025, it was the traditional reduction season in Southeast Asia. The decline in output accelerated palm oil inventory of the two countries and continued to reduce supply pressure.At the same time, the Indonesian government plans to increase the blending rate of raw firewood from B35 to B40 from January 2025. It is expected to increase the domestic consumption of palm oil of 2.9 million tons throughout the year, which will further tighten the country's supply and demand and exports.
In the country, the number of ships buying boats from January to April 2025 still has sporadic, and it is only slightly slightly slightly more than buying ships in May. Therefore, domestic palm oils are expected to be difficult to accumulate in the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2025 and maintain a tight balance.Low stocks at home and abroad are fermented in the production seasons and Indonesia's raw firewood themes. It is expected that at home and abroad, it is expected to have a strong foundation at home and abroad.
The picture shows domestic palm oil inventory (unit: 10,000 tons)
2. Soybean oil: Meeting pressure overlay in Brazil's weather transactions weakened, and the price is relatively weak
The October Report of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has been released. The report has only slightly lowered 2024/2025. The US bean produces to 53.1 puppet earlings, and the new output is 124.7 million tons.12.53%.Moreover, weather forecast shows that the main production area in the next 1 to 2 weeks is Shaoyu and good field operations, which is conducive to the acceleration of the harvesting of the US beans, leading to huge seasonal pressure.
In Brazil, in the early stages of drought, the country's 2024/2025 soybean sowing has lagged behind.However, a large amount of rainfall has recently appeared in central Brazil, improved drought and accelerated sowing, and the weather speculation has significantly cool down.At present, the optimistic estimation of Brazilian beans with an annual output of more than 165 million tons has not changed.The pressure of the harvesting of the US beans and the weakening of the speculation of South America's weather, and the short -term US bean 2412 contract is expected to fluctuate.Ahmedabad Stock
In China, the amount of soybeans from soybeans from September was 11.371 million tons, which was significantly higher than the previous estimates. Whether it was 6.7 million tons of soybean inventory or 1.14 million tons of soybean oil inventory is still at a historical high, soybean oil raw materials were abundant.Although soybean oil consumption is relatively best in the three oils, the overall domestic oil consumption is still worse than last year, so the huge supply pressure takes time to digest.In short, in the context of 2024/2025, the pressure of US bean harvesting, the cooling of the South American weather speculation, and the pressure of domestic supply are still huge, the performance of soybean oil in the three major oils is expected to be relatively weak.
The picture shows Brazil in the past 60 days of water reduction
In the medium and long term, as the three major main products are expected to increase the increase in total supply than the increase in total demand, the global soybean supply and demand of 2024/2025 continues to relax and continuously suppress the price of soybean oil.However, the pressure on the harvesting of Meidou will be released after November. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that the possibility of La Na phenomenon this winter is 60%. South America 2024/2025 Soybean still has drought risks in the long run.Coupled with the current price of Meiyu's fell below its own planting costs, it means that the space for Meiyou to continue to fall is limited. It is expected to support it at 950 Metrics/Pu -type ear.
The picture shows domestic soybean oil inventory (unit: 10,000 tons)
In China, from October this year to January 2025, soybean to Hong Kong is expected to be 8.45 million, 6.71 million, 8.33 million, and 7.91 million tons, which gradually decreases from the number of Hong Kong to Hong Kong.Loose supply and demand is decreasing.Therefore, we believe that the prices of medium and long -term soybean oil are under pressure and support, and the overall high -level shocks are focused on whether the growth of South American beans support its high yield expectations.
3. Vegetable oil: add rapeseed anti -dumping survey to cool down but global supply and demand is tightened, supporting the price of far -month
In early September, the Ministry of Commerce of India announced that it launched an anti -dumping survey of the Canadian rapeseed import. The market was worried that this survey led to a significant decline in future rapeseed imports, causing vegetable oil prices to rise sharply in early September to early October.However, on October 18th, the Canadian government allowed local enterprises to apply for duty for exemption to exemption to electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products imported from IndiaNagpur Investment. In additionEssenceThe Canadian government's attitude has changed in the early stage. The trade tensions between the two countries have partially eased, and the Lido emotions of the Causan anti -dumping incident are likely to weaken.In addition, the volume of rapeseed from the fourth quarter of India is expected to be high. From October to November, the number of Hong Kong is expected to be more than 500,000 tons, and Russian vegetable oil will also enter the country in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the supply of domestic vegetables in the fourth quarter is huge.In the short term, due to the cooling of Canadian rapeseed anti -dumping incidents and the pressure of vegetable supply in China in recent months, the price of vegetable oil may be adjusted at a high level.
However, in the medium and long term, the global vegetable supply in 2024/2025 has decreased and demand has increased slightly. The sales of library sales have decreased by 2.02 percentage points to 7.57%year -on -year. Supply and demand is the most tense among beans, brown, and vegetables.Although the domestic supply in the fourth quarter of 2024, the supply of vegetables is not lacking, but domestic manufacturers are worried about policy changes, and they are very slow to buy rapeseed in 2025, and domestic supply and demand is tightened from loosening.In addition, Canadian rapeseed anti -dumping investigations have not yet been implemented, and the possibility of anti -dumping duties in the future.Therefore, comprehensively, the tightening of supply and demand at home and abroad will support the price of vegetable oil that supports Yuanyue.
In summary, short -term domestic macro and crude oil atmosphere weakened, coupled with South American weather speculation and Canadian rapeseed anti -dumping surveys cooling down, making overall domestic oil prices high adjustment.However, with the tight supply and demand of palm oil at home and abroad and the Canadian rapeseed anti -dumping survey, the adjustment is expected to be limited.In terms of varieties, the continuous tension of palm oil at home and abroad is expected to have the strongest trend, and soybean oil is weakened by the pressure of US beans and the speculation of South American weather. Vegetable oil is expected to be relatively weak due to the cooling of rapeseed.In the middle and long term, the global palm oil and rapeseed supply and demand of 2024/2025 are tightened year -on -year.The harvesting pressure of North American soybeans and rapeseed is released after November, and palm oil production season and South American weather risk may be fermented, and the pressure on foreign supply has further weakened.Overlapping the peak of the oil consumption season in the fourth quarter, the process of oil and grease is expected to accelerate, and the bottom of the supply and demand will improve the bottom of the price.
The picture shows the global vegetable oil inventory (unit: 10,000 tons)Agra Stock
In terms of operation, the oil 2501 contract is recommended to wait and see temporarily, waiting for the adjustment to end the dual layout.In terms of arbitrage, pay attention to the 1-5 price difference of soybean oil and palm oil.(Author Unit: Changjiang Futures)
Analysts: Follow the high -level consolidation of vegetable oil and palm oil soybean oil
Looking back at the trend in the past six months, from early May to mid -August, domestic soybean oil and CBOT soybean fell simultaneously, but the 11%decline in domestic soybean oil fell below 22%of CBOT soybeans;, But domestic soybean oil has increased by 12%, which is higher than the 10%rebound of CBOT soybean. From early October, the two trend differentiated, domestic soybean oil is high, and CBOT soybeans have fallen below 1,000 cents/puppet ear integer mark again and low before testing.960 cents/Pu -ear front line support.
Zhang Cuiping, an analyst at Zhengxin Futures Oil Oil, told the Futures Daily reporter that as the USDA report was announced in October, the US bean yield was basically a foregone conclusion.Judging from the current data, North America has made a rapid progress, soybean listing rhythm is compact, and the supply pressure is concentrated; the drought environment in South America has been improved by Brazil's rainfall, and the market lacks the theme of weather transactions in the short term.Find.
"Recently, the US beans have been weakened. One is that Brazil's production area has ushered in continuous precipitation, relieve drought, and sowing expectations are smooth; second, the weather in North American production areas is dry, the harvesting work is smooth, and the layout of the high yield is established; the third is that the US dollar index continues to strengthen pressure..
Recently, the weather in Brazil's production area has improved, soybean sowing pace is expected to accelerate, and the output prospects are optimistic. The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (Conab) is expected to be 166 million tons of Brazilian soybean production in 2024/2025, an increase of 12.7%year -on -year.Guo Wenwei, an analyst of Huishang Futures Oil Oil Oil, said that due to the influence of early drought, Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slow, especially the largest main producing state Matugrosso State.Sowing until mid -late September.From the perspective of overall speed, as of October 13, Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 9.1%, which was far lower than the average value of 21.4%in the first three years.The weather forecast in Brazil's soybean production area in late October shows that it continues to rain in most parts of the country, especially in the central northern part of Matugrosso, soil humidity has exceeded 80%, which is conducive to promoting the progress of Brazilian soybean sowing.
In addition, Su Yajing introduced that as of the week of October 10, the US annual soybean export sales increased by 1.703 million tons, which was in line with market estimates. The cumulative sales volume of American soybeans in 2024/2025 was 21.841 million tons, which was 20.796 million tons in the same period last year;As of the week of October 10th, the US sales of Indian soybeans in 2024/2025 were 1 million tons, and the previous week was 583,000 tons. As of now, India ’s cumulative procurement this year was 9.121 million tons.Essence
"It is worth noting that the latest data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency shows that the profit production of renewable fuel is not good. The September and D6's September RIN generation volume has decreased by more than 4%month -on -month, which continues the trend of August.Monthly announced the closure of production facilities or abandoning renewable conversion plans.Bean pressing demand.
"As a raw material, Meansan directly affects the trend of its squeezing by -product soybean oil and soybean meal. However, from the perspective of the financial attributes of the goods itself and related varieties, soy oil is more likely to be affected by peripheral factors than soybean meal.When the related oil is strong, most of the soybean oil runs with the disk, differentiated with the trend of raw materials, or the same strength as the raw material. "Zhang Cuiping said.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Guo Wenwei believes that the loose supply and demand pattern of the Mei Dou's phase suppress the trend of the future price. Domestic soybean oil mainly relies on imported soybean squeezing. The support of soybean oil is weakened, driving soybean oil futures and recovery.
Su Yajing said that at present, the US bean production area is dry. This week's harvest progress is 80 % to 90 %, the overall is relatively smooth; the export sales of US bean maintained normal progress, domestic buying ships continues, and then they still need to pay attention to export sales progress; Brazil ushered in continuous precipitation precipitationIt relieves the worries of the early stages, but still needs to pay attention to the weather changes in the growth period of crops; waiting for the results of the US presidential election, the overall shock of the US beans runs weakly.In terms of domestic, soybean inventory is much more than that of soybean oil, but the current trend is mainly based on macro and palm. There is still a story in the supply side of palm production areas, and the price is relatively strong.
"Return to the market after the festival, Southeast Asian palm oil production reduction, Sino -Canadian trade dispute waiting for conclusion, domestic macro environment, etc. are reflected on the plate, soy oil follows the high -level consolidation of vegetable palm oil, and forms a large contrast with the re -found CBOT soybean.. Of course, the cost weakly dragged the soybean oil was weaker than that of vegetable palm oil.Essence
Article Address： http://pornsoldier.com/FI/41.html
Article Source：Admin88
Notice：Please indicate the source of the article in the form of a link。
